BALTIMORE (WJZ) — We’re expecting a much more unsettled, wetter weather pattern over the next several days.  In fact, the regional radar loop Friday morning is showing us “some of Thursday night’s leftovers,” or what is still left of some old thunderstorms which blew up over eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania late Thursday and early Thursday night. For that reason, we’re going to allow for a shower or thunderstorm around here Friday at virtually ANY TIME.

We must keep a watchful eye on the regional radar mosaic Friday afternoon too, because there will undoubtedly be a new round of showers and thunderstorms popping up.  We believe this afternoon’s activity will originate in western and central sections of both New York State and Pennsylvania.

The sentiment in the office Friday morning is that while Saturday will be rather cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm around, it won’t be quite as “active” as Sunday will be.  This pattern is one “of slow deterioration,” because a large upper-level low pressure system currently located in the central Plains states is going to take more than 72 hours to reach the southern Appalachians (probably on Monday morning). And, with that upper-level feature tapping into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and a series of “spokes” or “pulses” of energy rotating around it during the next few days, there will be times when a shower or thunderstorm occurs, as well as lengthy stretches of time that are rain-free.

Timing issues are always a challenge, and forecasts can change from day to day, but we’re noticing that recent runs of the U.S. medium-range global forecast model are pushing a round of showers and thunderstorms up the mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday/Sunday night, and then trying to build a ridge of high pressure in on Monday, which would limit any shower activity and could allow for a relatively warm afternoon (with many highs in the upper-70s or lower-80s).  The European, on the other hand, has a cooler and wetter look for both Sunday and Monday. Therefore, most of the wording/timing of rain in our forecasts will closely resemble what we already have been saying.  No matter what, it is definitely going to be a more unsettled period of weather moving forward, starting tomorrow and lasting through at least Thursday of next week.

Have a good weekend !!!!


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