BLOG: Rain In Future

Good morning.

Nothing new to report this morning so we'll go with the same theme as yesterday. A deep upper-level trough will continue to slowly work eastward while a blocking high strengthens over the Atlantic. So in other words expect this thing to go nowhere fast.

Upper-level energy will round the top of a second ridge over the northern Plains, and this energy will become integrated into the eastern trough and strengthen it as we head into Tuesday. Given this, expect the rain to
be fairly showery in nature through the first half of Tuesday with an occasional rumble of thunder as well. In fact, today looks good for a few stronger storms with steep low-level lapse rates and low freezing levels, meaning damaging wind gusts or small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest storms. Our severe threat will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating, so by 8 p.m. we should be done with that.

As we head through Tuesday afternoon and into the day Wednesday, the trough will become a closed upper-level low with a surface low strengthening in the Carolinas. The gradient between the surface low and high pressure over Newfoundland will cause the easterly flow to increase, sending significant amounts of moisture inland.

It still appears that the heaviest rainfall will occur late Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Total rainfall amounts through the forecast period will likely exceed two inches in many areas, perhaps with as much as three inches in some spots. Some clearing is possible on Friday, but I wouldn't count on it at this juncture... these systems are notorious for being slower to exit than model guidance indicates.

Have a good day!