BLOG: July 4 Forecast

Quite a nice start to the holiday weekend across the northeast as an upper-level trough slowly pushes offshore and an approaching cold front remains well to the west. In the middle we'll find ourselves with sunshine and a perhaps a few puffy clouds through the afternoon. Temperatures will be above normal (but not too bad) while dew points will rise to near 60, so really it could be much worse for early July.
 
Sunday looks to be about the same with regard to temperatures, but with dew points some 8-10 degrees higher it will certainly feel warmer and it will feel more like the mid/upper 90s with a mix of clouds and sun. Showers and thunderstorms seems likely by the afternoon as the cold front moves into the area, and considering the amount of moisture present in the atmosphere blinding rainfall and downbursts will be a concern. Fortunately the risk for damaging weather should remain limited for the 4th as the front moves off to the east and any afternoon thunderstorm activity from Baltimore northward will be in association with a weak upper-level disturbance.

Rainfall chances are fairly low, but considering that it's a holiday in which plenty of people are outdoors it may be worth having in the forecast despite the 20% chance of rainfall. Thankfully humidity should be a bit less, save for southern areas. 

The flow becomes southwesterly on Tuesday and keeps a warm air mass over the region, but given that the upper-level pattern will continue to feature a very broad trough over the Northeast it will not be "hot." With humidity in a reasonable range the beginning of July looks fairly tame in comparison to last year when we had back-to-back 100+ degree days on the 5th and 6th (Newark had four such consecutive days from the 4th through the 7th)! The next decent shot at rainfall
looks to be Wednesday night into Thursday as another cold front moves into the Mid-Atlantic region. The pattern is shaping up to be an active one in the long range.