BLOG: Steamy!
The regional radar mosaic as of 4:40 a.m. is indicating a few showers in the WJZ-TV viewing area, most of which are north and east of the City of Baltimore.
As these showers push off to the east and southeast at around 25 mph, it will take a little while for them to clear out of the region. This is associated with the leading edge of the warm and also much more humid air that we've been talking about for the past couple of days. It'll be a good idea to have the umbrella handy not only this morning, but later on today as well. Even though there should be a prolonged break in between these episodes of rain (with the sun actually popping out for a few hours), there'll be a round of heavy, gusty thunderstorms erupting this afternoon. These should last into early tonight before ending later.
Because dewpoint temperatures are expected to climb into the 70s, and the breaks in the cloud cover will bring us a very warm afternoon, any shower or thunderstorm that occurs in this kind of environment could bring a drenching downpour. Also, the Storm Prediction Center has identified a zone from southern New England back into the Ohio Valley as an area where some good wind shear will occur this afternoon and this evening (that is when winds change direction rapidly with increasing height). The combination of the instability generated by the warm and muggy air, as well as the strong wind dynamics, should result in a few severe thunderstorm cells by mid-afternoon. These will first impact parts of upstate New York and the northern tier of counties in Pennsylvania before marching toward the coastal plain later this afternoon and this evening (mostly between the hours of 4 p.m. and midnight).
Temperatures this afternoon will be mostly in the middle and upper-90s. It is quite a challenge to determine how warm it will get in the city. The numerical guidance is suggesting that it'll be between 95 and 98 at the airport. We'll leave the 98 that was in our previous forecast, and examine the situation at midday to see if the temperature needs to either be raised, lowered or left alone. The current record high for today's date is 99, which will be challenged.
Once the front pushes across the area late tonight, most of shower and thunderstorm activity will end. Temperatures tomorrow will be mostly in the middle-90s, with some sun returning. Because of the wind out of the west and northwest, it should also become somewhat less humid tomorrow afternoon (dewpoint temperatures that will be in the lower-70s today will be mostly in the lower-60s by late tomorrow afternoon). Rain-free weather will prevail on Sunday, with temperatures in the lower or middle-90s. The next front is forecasted by the global models to drop out of the north and west Monday afternoon or Monday night. It'll produce our next chances for getting a shower or thunderstorm.
Have a good weekend !!!
