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BLOG: Fall Is In The Air

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timwilliams

The front has moved off shore and will continue to shift eastward as high pressure builds into the Northeast. Unfortunately as the dry high moves into the area high clouds from the Midwest are quickly filling in eastward which could threaten our expected abundant sunshine. In fact, we’ll call it partly sunny and cool today. While the front stays to our south tomorrow there will be a wave of low pressure developing along the boundary. This is expected to spread thicker clouds to the north and also cause a bit of rain along the Delmarva coastline. Now the farther north you go the more sunshine you’ll see and the farther south the more clouds and better chance for rain. NAM actually does show some rain here tomorrow, but it is the outlier with the rest remaining dry. Now on Sunday it will be just a touch milder with a little more sunshine as high pressure holds firmly in the region.

The big question early next week will be the timing of our next system. The models have sort of a double front structure moving eastward. One weaker system moves in during the early part of the week, maybe Tuesday, and then a second stronger front a day or two later. This is not dissimilar to the situation we had Wednesday and Thursday of this week. The second, and stronger, front will arrive on Thursday.

As for this first piece on Tuesday, the latest model information shows some convergence along it and some showers and thunderstorms in New York, Pennsylvania and southward to the Virginias, generally close to the mountains, but also trying to slide a little more to the east. There are so many little features on the field that can cause problems depending on which long range model you like. The GFS forms a low over the Atlantic leading to a subsidence zone in between the weak front and the coastal regions.

Another idea suggests a sharp digging trough with the second system in the Midwest and a slight ridging in the east in response. This would diminish the precipitation chance in the eastern U.S. on Tuesday.

Again, the one thing we can hang our hat on is that it will be mild/warm with more humidity.

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