On the surface weather map this morning we have strong high pressure centered across upstate New York delivering plenty of dry, cool low level air. However, at the mid and upper levels we have troughiness off to the west that is sending some mid and higher level moisture across the region and we will have more clouds than sun today, though there will be occasional sunshine across the northern half of the viewing area.
Meanwhile, farther south an onshore flow around a developing wave along a frontal zone stalled off the Southeast Coast of the United States and part of the midlevel trough coming eastward will be spawning an organized area of low pressure along the mid-Atlantic coast today and tonight that will be tracking northeastward over the western Atlantic well to our east tomorrow into tomorrow night. Although it looks like the rain from this system will stay south and east of Baltimore itself, there will be some rain and drizzle along the lower eastern shore today (as per current radar) and tonight the rain and drizzle may expand farther north and west for a time, but probably staying to the south and east of Baltimore.
There will also be some gusts to 30 -35 from the east-northeast along the coast today and tonight from the difference in pressure from the high center to the north and developing low. With the low center pulling off to the north and east and farther away tomorrow, it should give high pressure a chance to nose back southward and allowing clouds to break for some sunshine with any lingering rain or drizzle off to the east moving away during the morning. With surface high ridging southward along the coast, sinking and dry air will result in plenty of sunshine Monday.
There is a Pacific type front now developing across the western Plains that will be tracking eastward the next couple of days. This front will be weakening and more or less falling apart as it comes eastward across our area Tuesday into more of a zone of high pressure stationed across the western Atlantic. This front could bring us a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday, but the chances for a few showers and a thunderstorm increase as we get into a moist southerly flow around high pressure moving farther out over the Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday and its pretty much a guarantee that we’ll have a least one round of wet weather coming up at some point during the Wednesday-Thursday time period. At this point, it does not look to bring much of an overall flood threat, but rather some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. If we end up overcast most of Wednesday and Thursday, our temperatures may be a few too high, but there will be more of a warmer, more humid feel to the air from Tuesday afternoon into the end of the week.
Some models suggest we dry out during the day Friday, while the European model is slower and doesn’t dry us out until Saturday.