Lots of clouds, a few showers and some drizzle are lingering in parts of the Eastern region early this morning. In parts of the Northeast where rain did actually occur yesterday, it was very light. High pressure located off the shores of eastern Canada prevented much of New England from getting any rain, while southeastern New York and northern New Jersey have had around a quarter of an inch. The “main thrust” of yesterday’s rain also spread up the spine of the Appalachians (mainly in central Pennsylvania and upstate New York).
This afternoon’s temperatures will be largely dependent on whether or not the sun can come out for a while. With an easterly component to the wind this morning, and lots of low-level moisture still managing to linger (especially with the morning drizzle and shower activity),perhaps the “best move” at this juncture is to strike some sort of compromise, and suggest that highs will be “around 72.”
But since winds that are generally out of the east and southeast are expected to turn more toward the south late today and tonight, there is sentiment that most temperatures TONIGHT will be no lower than 60 degrees, primarily along the coast and in the bigger cities. This is definitely mild for the middle of October.
We’re still anticipating that the axis of an upper-level trough, currently located in the Midwest, will be swinging to the east tonight and tomorrow. That trough, as we mentioned yesterday, will become “negatively-tilted.” What that tends to mean is that there will be some sort of low pressure system forming at the base of the trough, and some relatively strong winds/dynamics in the jet stream will cause the low pressure area to strengthen.
So, we’re expecting a mild night tonight with plenty of clouds and maybe a shower. A corridor of more widespread rain should move out of the central Appalachians and into the coastal plain tomorrow morning. Tomorrow’s temperatures will be mostly in the lower-70s, and there will be rain at times. Some of the rain could be heavy, and may also be accompanied by a thunderstorm. Actually, some of the parameters we look at when determining whether or not thunderstorms can be strong or severe ARE SUGGESTING that a zone in the mid-Atlantic states tomorrow may get encounter a strong or severe thunderstorm. These would most likely happen in the afternoon near the Chesapeake and Delaware bays, and could flare up near Atlantic City, Philadelphia, Baltimore or Dover, Delaware. Later in the day or early tomorrow night, it isn’t out of the question that some thunder and lightning could occur as far north as the southern coast of New England. Once the wave of low pressure lifts out to the north, a fairly potent cold front makes a “clean sweep” of the area late tomorrow night, some cool and windy weather is in store for Saturday. Expect times of sun and clouds, winds gusting as high as 35 mph and temperatures mostly in the middle-60s.
Have a good day !!!