All of Wednesday’s rain has ended, and although there are a couple of widely-separated showers showing up on the regional radar mosaic early this morning — they won’t last for very long. What is happening here is the actual “cool front” associated with a wave of low pressure spinning its wheels over the eastern Great Lakes is pressing northeastward. Therefore, temperatures that have been quite mild overnight (at least for the third week in October) are going to hold nearly steady for a while before they start to slowly fall this afternoon.
It’s not too bad when you head out the door early in the morning during the third week in October, and temperatures are in the upper 60s, only to have them roll back into the middle 60s. The wind will be “picking up,” and southwesterly winds averaging 12-25 mph Thursday afternoon could gust to around 35 mph from time to time.
There will be some noticeably cooler air spreading out across the region Thursday night and Friday. Many outlying areas, and even some of the larger cities and towns, will be in the 40s at daybreak tomorrow — assuming that winds should average 10-15 mph (or less) early Thursday morning. Most highs Friday, even despite plenty of sunshine, will be in the lower 60s across the region. The upper-level wind pattern heading into the weekend is still showing a trough axis that is carved out over the Northeast. And, while the trough won’t be quite as “deep” as it will be Thursday or Friday (with an upper-level low pressure circulation currently located in the eastern Great Lakes poised to move northeastward and into Canada), it still appears that Saturday’s temperatures will be hard-pressed to get out of the lower or middle 60s. The new guidance seems to be implying that our previous forecasts were a couple of degrees too low, and some minor tweaks have been made. However, the idea that the weekend will be featuring a fair amount of sunshine and temperatures that are near the seasonal averages remains the same. The next impulse of shortwave, or “upper-level” energy that could trigger a shower around here will be arriving on Monday.
Have a good day !!!