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BLOG: Perfect Fall Weekend

Seems like there has been some moisture in a pretty shallow layer somewhere 4,000-6,000 feet that is being held from mixing out completely by a warmer layer aloft just about this level. What it means is a "sunny to partly cloudy" type of day as mainly clear skies out of the gate will mix over with some of those flat looking clouds during the midday and afternoon. Doubtful that they stratify into any solid deck. All in all not a bad day, though remaining a little on the cool side. We allow temperatures to run up right near yesterday's readings.

The warm layer aloft and thin ribbon of moisture trapped under may result in patchy clouds at times again tonight and tomorrow, but no big deal and tomorrow is probably just perceived as a sunny day. The atmosphere warms as a whole a little more tomorrow and high pressure settling in along the mid-Atlantic coast turns our flow around to the southwest.

That southwest flow of warmer air will continue Monday, but there will be a weak and relatively moisture-starved front that will could send a shower into northern and western parts of our area late Monday afternoon or early Monday night. We just play it as a mention.

Behind this weak front, we will be set up for dry, pleasant weather Tuesday. A low pressure area that will be developing out in the middle of the nation Tuesday will move eastward just to our north Wednesday. The moisture and the cold front associated with this low pressure area will probably bring a couple of showers Wednesday with current timing waiting until after noon in Baltimore and areas south and east giving temperatures a shot at running into the low 70s.

This front will deliver chillier air for Thursday and the front will also stall to the south leaving a pathway for more moisture to come eastward for our chance of some rain Thursday. This moisture will be coming out in a southwest flow aloft ahead of another area low pressure developing in the southern Plains on the western end of the stalled front. This low pressure area may come eastward along the path of the front and bring us more wet weather Friday and perhaps even into Saturday. This second storm will bring the risk of heavy rainfall the way things look set up right now.

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