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BLOG: Chilly And Clear

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timwilliams

High pressure will continue to dominate the pattern today as it did yesterday. This surface high pressure combined with rising heights aloft will combine to provide a pleasant day for the northeast. Much of the region will see mostly sunny skies with highs close to or just slightly below normal for this time of year.

Even winds will be quite calm due to the lack of pressure gradient. Overall the day will be quite nice, a great weekend day to spend raking leaves or spending time in the parks for city dwellers. Things should cool off for the night time, especially in places away from water that have the potential to radiate, but most places should stay above freezing mark tonight. Tomorrow, high pressure should be more centered over the mid-Atlantic, leading to yet another nice day. Temperatures will be on the rise compared to today, getting to near or above normal. However the real warm up will be on Tuesday when high pressure will move offshore a bit, allowing a more organized southerly flow across the region. A system moving in to the region from the west will be moving across the Great Lakes on Wednesday, continuing to strengthen the southerly flow pattern and even more on Wednesday. Model disagreement becomes somewhat of a problem on Wednesday. Our current belief is that a possible hybrid tropical system that will be developing off the southeast coast will not get picked up by the flow aloft until later in the week, allowing Wednesday to remain a nice day overall.

However on Wednesday night or Thursday, a system will approach the northeast from the west, bringing a front across the region. On top of that, the hybrid tropical system will have moved into the region, providing an increase in moisture. Thursday could be a wet day for much of the East Coast. Friday looks currently to be drier behind the system, however the upper level pattern will still be quite trough-like, and some models are even depicting a possible clipper situation for the weekend. However a model consensus has not been reached yet for even the end of the week, so caution should be used when approaching the forecast for the weekend.

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