BLOG: Holiday Week Ahead

A decent day upcoming to conclude the weekend, but after that the pattern becomes more unsettled with several shots of rainfall. High pressure along the East Coast will give way overnight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Any breaks in the clouds this early will fill later with a few showers pushing in during the overnight hours. The cold front will move into the region overnight but showers will remain in the area for Monday as warm advection continues in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. It should be stressed that any activity on Monday will be light and brief in duration as low-level drying should keep things isolated in nature. Regardless, don’t expect much in the way of sunshine.

 Tuesday looks to be another day with a considerable amount of cloudiness as a storm system takes shape over the Ohio Valley with a warm front moving through. We’ll keep rain in the forecast, but the uncertainty lies with regard to when the steady rainfall will develop. Right now we have it slotted to develop in the afternoon and that seems to be reasonable given the latest model guidance. Could be a bit sooner. In any event the warm front will lift northward overnight, putting us within the warm sector before the storm’s cold front passes through on Wednesday. It goes without saying that Wednesday will end up wet — but it does look like we should be a few degrees warmer.

 Thanksgiving is a bit of a question mark, but only to the extent that we may see some lingering morning clouds… but if these trends continue over the next few model cycles we may have to be more pessimistic for the morning hours. We’re in a good spot for now given the discrepancies in the guidance. Friday looks nice, however, and we strangely have more confidence here than we do for Tuesday or Thursday! Warmer and dry for the weekend with a big storm system to the west.

Have a great day!

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