Everyone needs to relax about Michael Phelps. Sure, he’s not going to win gold in every event, we know that. But people shouldn’t overreact to not getting gold in the 400 IM.
His best shot at individual events is still ahead. My feeling is he still has, by ordinary standards, a tremendous Olympics. He won’t have a “Phelps-ian” games, but it’s unlikely anyone else will either. His lack of training is being blown out of proportion.
My guess is that he picks up at least 2 gold medals, and probably 5 or so medals overall. At the end of the day, he’ll go down as the most decorated Olympian ever.