The next big feature that we’ll be tracking over the next 48 hours is a wave of low pressure currently located in the central Plains, which will be dragging a potent cold front into the eastern third of the nation Saturday.
Ahead of this front, there’ll be a strong south westerly flow of air, which will transport warm and moist air northward along the East Coast. And, since the Storm Prediction Center has placed an area that extends from northern New England down to the Carolinas in their “slight risk” area for severe weather, there appears to be enough evidence to back up the claim that any of Saturday’s thunderstorms may contain potentially damaging wind gusts and some hard downpours.
This activity will probably start to develop over the central Appalachians between the hours of 2 and 4 p.m. Saturday afternoon before reaching the big cities between 4 and 10 p.m.
And a few tornadoes cannot even be ruled out.
Rainfall totals across the region should be mostly between 0.25 and 0.50″, based on the quantitative precipitation totals which are being generated by the various global models.
But, if this front were to move more slowly than what we’re anticipating, or any of the individual thunderstorm cells move at less than 25 mph, there can be rainfall exceeding one inch – and possible flooding issues.
If there is any good news to come out of the weekend forecast, it is that there is now a greater level of confidence that the aforementioned front will be moving at a fast enough pace to bring an end to all of these showers and thunderstorms by early Sunday morning.
The only possible exceptions would include eastern portions of Long Island and New England, but even those spots would probably only get a shower or thunderstorm prior to 8 a.m. on Sunday.
It’ll be turning breezy and much less humid behind this frontal passage, and most temperatures on Sunday afternoon will be in the upper-70s
Sunday night should turn out partly cloudy to clear and cool with less wind and most temperatures outside of the big cities will either wind up in the 50s, or even the upper-40s in some of those typically cooler spots.