WEATHER BLOG: Chilly Now, Warm Sunday

High pressure centered over Pennsylvania is bringing many of us our coldest ( and in some outlying area frost) weather so far this season Saturday morning. Temperatures will be down several degrees from Friday's early afternoon high, but with sunshine and the absence of the wind it will feel like a cool fall day and not too shabby during the midday and afternoon. The storm system that brought the unsettled weather in the Southwest over the last couple of days is emerging onto the Plains. Our high pressure will slide eastward and the southerly flow will ensue Saturday night and Sunday. This will result in warmer air returning with a warm front. We will stay partly cloudy dry with the warm front lifting northward, but any rain will stay much farther north.

We will break into the warm sector Sunday with a nice feeling southwest breeze during the midday and afternoon and temperatures rising into the 70s. We will start Monday with dry, warm weather and the breeze will continue. However, clouds will end up winning out Monday with the front from this storm system coming eastward. That front will result in a few showers and even a thunderstorm, mainly Monday afternoon. The storm will track up into southeast Ontario or southern Quebec late Monday.

There are some differences on the models as far as what happens with the actual low pressure center Tuesday and where it tracks and whether it redevelops over eastern New England. For now, we are not completely buying the GFS solution with a stronger low developing in New England and bringing us stronger winds and cooler air than some of the other models say. However, it will be a breezy and cooler day for us behind the front Tuesday and all models are showing dry weather is the way to go with some sunshine. We should even turn out mostly sunny. High pressure will follow for sunshine Wednesday, then a system may approach Thursday.