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WEATHER BLOG: Chilly November

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timwilliams

An upper-level disturbance will pass to the south Sunday afternoon and evening, keeping the region dry as the weekend draws to a close. This feature, along with an upper-level low passing through New England, will keep a cold air-mass in place with high temperatures today some 8-10 degrees below average. And with breezy conditions expected once again it will feel even colder. A mix of sunshine and clouds can be expected, so not all is lost, however.

High pressure will slide across the Northeast on Tuesday, passing to the east of Nova Scotia, while an upper-level trough over the Southeast becomes negatively tilted. This will support cyclogenesis along the Carolina coast Tuesday night with the surface low deepening quickly on Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty with regard to the speed of the system, but nearly all reliable guidance suggests that precipitation will arrive in our area on Wednesday. The rain could be heavy at times depending on the storm track, so this will be something to keep an eye on. It’s not out of the question for a few snowflakes in at the onset of the event, but more likely than not any snow will remain to the north and west of the greater Baltimore area. Winds will be a concern as the nor’easter barrels northward, and beach erosion and minor (emphasis on minor) coastal flooding will be a problem in the wake of Sandy even though tides will not be significantly affected. At this stage, any storm system of respectable strength will cause more problems than otherwise would take place.

Clouds and a little rainfall will linger into Thursday, but Friday looks much better with some sunshine and temperatures rising closer to average. The weekend, for now, looks good with temperatures climbing further and sunshine, though warm advection clouds may be present on Saturday.

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