Obviously, there’s been a ton of buzz about Ray Rice’s lack of carries in the Steelers loss. And now, further proof, from a statistical perspective. This is from a listener, David, who did the legwork and emailed me:
- Losses w 15 or fewer carries: 15 (including Playoffs)
- Wins w 15 or fewer carries: 7 (including Playoffs)
- Wins with greater than 15 carries: 35 (including playoffs)
- % chance of winning with RR carrying at least 15 times: 53%
- % chance of winning with RR carrying less than 15 times: 10.6% !!!!
- Finally, on avg, RR has to get at least 19.2 carries rushing for Ravens to have the best chance to win.
Thanks to David for running the numbers. Granted, in many cases, you can get the stats to say what you want, but in this case, there is some validity to them.