WEATHER BLOG: Tricky

An active weather pattern will prevail across the region over the upcoming holiday week as a series of jet stream disturbances sweep east across the nation. The first disturbance will cause low pressure to affect our weather on Christmas Eve, bringing light precipitation (0.08-0.15), mainly in the form of rain. The air may be cold enough for a bit of sleet at the onset of the precip north of the city. On the heals of the first low, a more formidable jet disturbance will cause low pressure to quickly strengthen across the East on the day after Christmas. Based on the consensus track of the low (which has the low moving from the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to near NY City early Thursday), .... a large swath of heavy snow will fall over interior Northeast while mainly rain falls along the coast, including the metro region.

Precipitation will arrive in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. The air ahead of the low may be cold enough to yield an hour or two of sleet at the onset of the precip in the city. Farther north and west of the city, there will be a several hour period of mixed precip, which will may include some snow. Rain totals will likely range from 1-2 inches before ending in the mid to late afternoon on Wednesday. Strong onshore winds will may lead to coastal and tidal flooding, esp. at the time of high tide later on Wednesday. Windy and chilly conditions are expected for Wed night into Thursday.

Tranquil weather is expected on Friday while a third disturbance #3 causes another low to cross
the East Coast on the weekend. Precip type with disturbance #3 is probably more likely to be liquid
than solid.