We had a nice mild day Friday, but that near 60 degree warmth of Friday will not be repeated anytime though at least Monday. The cold front has slipped to our east and we are back into the colder air with the deepening upper level trough. Energy coinciding with the cold front and some moisture has produced some rain and rain changing to snow overnight. Nothing heavy or persistent is expected with precipitation, but there will be a few periods of light snow/flurries with no accumulation, and there can still be some light rain at times Saturday morning. There is also some fog showing up in places where it cleared out for a time behind this band of precip overnight and we cover for that early in the morning.
Energy coming eastward in the trough will be helping low pressure to start to consolidate into a deepening storm center off the coast of North Carolina that intensifies Saturday night and Sunday as it tracks northward and moves into Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon. The track of the low should be far enough offshore to pretty much have no precipitation impact of importance on our weather. We are holding on to a coating to an inch forecast for New York City, though there may be nothing nearby just to the west. Over central and eastern Long Island Saturday evening and upper through eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island Saturday and Sunday morning, and eastern Massachusetts into eastern Maine through Sunday is the zone we are thinking as far as accumulating snow. Western parts of this area will be generally a 1-3 inch area with 3-6 more likely from eastern Rhode Island into easternmost Massachusetts and up into eastern Maine.
A track of the low a little farther west could potentially bring the accumulating snow and little farther to the west and more than 6 inches in the eastern areas, but a track farther east would reduce amounts and limit the western extent of any accumulation. It will be interesting to watch how things come together Saturday afternoon into early evening across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia where there can be some heavy, wet snow for a few hours in places not too prone to snow. This steadier snow may clip the Eastern Shore Saturday evening. So for us, we are left in the colder air through Sunday with a little non accumulating flurries at times Saturday and early Saturday as the whole trough sends a little moisture our way at times. With the developing storm system we will have some strong and gusty winds developing later Saturday and continuing through Sunday. We might have a few harmless flurries Sunday in the cold cyclonic flow on the south side of the departing low, but there will also be some sunshine. Those wind gusts from the north-northwest will reach 30-35 mph at times. Wind chills will be in the teens.