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WEATHER BLOG: Spring?

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timwilliams

We are still caught up in the pretty active north of west flow around the surface and upper level low spinning up to the north of Maine that tracks a little to the south and east before getting pushed farther north and east while weakening a little more Sunday.

Meanwhile, we have a front along the Gulf Coast trying to push northward as an upper level trough coming across the Rockies right now. This will help surface low pressure develop/organize near southern Missouri Sunday morning and then head northeastward through the day and night toward Pittsburgh, Pa. Monday morning. There may be a warm frontal wave that comes eastward Sunday and moves off the Southeast Coast and then a separate additional redevelopment of coastal low near the VA/NC coast Monday morning as the primary west of the mountains low starts to weaken. The whole scenario looks to spread precipitation, as rain, changing to snow and rain beginning late  Sunday afternoon/evening. The upper levels will be cold enough as shown on guidance to support all snow, but the low levels will be close, and for that reason we keep specific accumulation numbers out of the forecast.

There are also some pretty big differences in QPF among the models. This leads us to the generic “some” accumulation of snow possible, especially non-paved surfaces, but will have to see which way things tip before committing to numbers. Right now, it looks like it could come down hard enough for a couple of slushy inches. What snow there is will be a wet snow. Even if it stays all snow, accumulations would be hard to predict as it would be that wet snow with above freezing surface temperatures helping keep amounts down. The farther away from the coast you go and into elevations as well, the more apt there is to be a moderate late season snowstorm.

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