Temperatures have been below average, but slowly moderating all week after Monday’s snow 36 degree day. Friday, we made it all the way up to 56 degrees. We are going to be closer to (or maybe a degree or two) above the average of 58 this weekend. However, there is another storm on the way.
High pressure will settle over the Mid-Atlantic Saturday. That will finally change up the weather pattern we have been stuck in the past four days. Expect more sunshine and less wind. But this high will quickly give way on Sunday to an approaching storm. Clouds will take over Easter Sunday, with rain eventually following. The way it looks now, it will be dry for Easter services and egg hunts in the morning before the rain arrives in the afternoon or evening. Make sure you check back in this weekend, as we will continue to finesse the timing.
Another front will quickly follow later Monday into Tuesday morning before getting out of here. That one will knock temperatures back down below average for the middle of the week – low 50s instead of 36 again.
For those who follow more long term forecasting, the NAO and AO are two teleconnections that we follow to help predict the trend of temperatures in the next few weeks. It’s a much more complicated discussion that we can get into, but when both are negative they tend to support cold air pouring into the Eastern U.S. The NAO is starting to rebound from its lowest level all season. Meanwhile, the AO may still see a dip in the next week or so, but it is also recovering from an incredibly low dip. To simplify all of that, it looks like we may finally be making a turn away from the unseasonably cold air that has continually dominated March in the Mid-Atlantic and East.