The visible satellite shows some high clouds streaming over the viewing area Thursday afternoon. The clouds are stemming from a storm soaking the Southeast in rain. The northern extent of this rain has been a point of contention, but the GFS has actually been verified pretty well on the rain in the Tennessee Valley on Thursday morning, so we do like bringing a bit of rain into the city from late evening on. Based on the trend of the models the last few days we decided to remove early morning rain Friday; we think the rain should be over around daybreak Friday. The first pitch temp of 57 looks great along with dry weather.
We think a nice day is lined up for Saturday with a light offshore flow and plenty of sunshine. A stronger south-southwest flow will kick in on Sunday as a storm crosses the St. Lawrence Valley.
We may want to mention a stray shower Sunday night as the front from that storm will slide south toward the area.
Monday through Thursday proves many challenges to the forecast, but it certainly favors some very warm air working north. And we like keeping that rather than tweaking too much. Coastal areas have more uncertainty, but we do have a couple of scenarios that can play out. Scenario one is the southeast ridge pumps up and brings a huge warm-up across the region. Scenario two is that ridge is more subdued and we’re dealing with some waves of low pressure that come across a stalled frontal boundary that keeps plenty of clouds and showers and some rain in the forecast. Monitoring this situation over the past few days has shown plenty of flip flopping on these two scenarios. But out of many spots in the Northeast, there’s definitely more confidence in the immediate area. If there’s any good news, it’s that we’re not talking about arctic air through the entirety of the forecast!