Who The Ravens ‘Should’ Take In Objective Mock NFL Draft Analysis
Sports Fan Insider
BALTIMORE (CBS) — The Baltimore Ravens, with Ozzie Newsome behind the wheel, have had quite a few drafts over the years that have made the front-deskers look like geniuses. Ozzie always says that their policy is “best available player.” But that doesn’t always appear to be the case, or even make sense when you have very specific holes to fill. But, nonetheless he continuously gets the job done to the tune of 2 Lombardi’s in 17 years, with very few misfires or mulligans.
Going all the way back to the Ravens first ever draft day when they picked up HOFer LT Jonathan Ogden and recently retired, future HOFer MLB Ray Lewis. Not only have the Ravens excelled at picking rookies from the massive pool of young athletes but they have waited patiently and plucked up a few incredible undrafted free agents once the weekend was over or in the fall (namely Priest Holmes, Bart Scott, and current kicker Justin Tucker).
Which way will Ozzie & Company go in the NFL 2013 Draft?
(NFL Draft: Thurs. 4/25 – Sat. 4/27) Don’t miss the Vinny & Rob Draft Special w/Jerry Coleman reporting from Castle Live Thursday April 25th at & 7:15pm on 105.7 The FAN
It’s anybody’s guess, but here’s what some of 105.7 The FAN’s hosts think about some specific players & the Ravens’ possible draft strategy:
“With 12 picks in 7 rounds Ozzie has flexibility to work a deep draft board. I’m not sure what he’ll do but I expect a handful of players selected this week will impact the Ravens future. Ozzie only had 4 picks in 1999 and scored Chris McAlister in the first round and Brandon Stokley and Ed Mulitalo in the 4th. Give him 12 picks and sit back and trust the Wizard of Oz!” - Scott Garceau
“The Ravens are as good as it gets when it comes to draft strategy. It’s not luck they get it right more often than not. Watching the draft unfold will be interesting as the best crop of players sits between draft slots 15-45. If the Ravens don’t get a guy like Manti T’eo to fall to them or trade up to get him, look for LB Kevin Minter from LSU to end up in purple next season in the Charm City.” - Mark Zinno
“Jonathan Cyprien is a 6’0” Safety from Florida International who has the ability to shut down centerfield. Cyprien is an extremely smart & hard-hitting player that fits the needs that the Ravens have with the departure of Ed Reed.” - Vinny Cerrato
There are many factors that go into picking a player to fill a hole on your team. The NFL Combine gives the coaches a look at how the potential rookies stack up in categories like speed and agility but the coaches still have to sit and watch endless game tape to see how they perform IN game. There are other factors that go into how a team chooses who they think is right for them, such as off field behavior issues (which we are seeing right now with Rolando McClain, a free-agent acquisition by the Ravens who once considered drafting the ILB out of Alabama back in 2010).
Here’s what Haynie & Coleman think:
“The Ravens needs in the draft have been well documented. Left tackle, safety and inside linebacker have to be addressed. I’m assuming they will. Look for Baltimore to draft keepers, as well. Remember, seven of the Ravens eight picks in 2012 played for them last season. The one who didn’t, WR Tommy Streeter, was on IR.” Bob Haynie
“The Ravens without tipping their hat too much, admit they will select a safety at some point. They also need to address the Left side of the offensive line and a wide receiver b/c the corps they have on their roster is limited. With 12 picks – and perhaps more pending a deal, history dictates they will do fine. Not to mention finding a “gem” or 2 as an undrafted free agent (see James Harrison, Priest Holmes and Bart Scott.)” Jerry Coleman
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Perhaps, one day computers & stats will totally take over for scouts, game tape & the gut feelings of experienced GMs & resident experts. That is where PredictionMachine.com comes into play. Their computers take in stats and plug them into complex math equations to spit out the line-up.
I know what you’re thinking, what does a computer know about football? And how does that even work? This is how PredictionMachine.com comes up with their Mock Draft:
To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factor college stats, previous utilization and strength of competition, combine measurables, role and expected utilization of the player’s NFL team (in this case an average NFL team) and previous performance of similar rookies at that position in general. This allows us to predict both the player’s projected ratio stats such as yards-per-carry, percentage of tackles made while on the field and passing completion percentage, as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming NFL season. Then we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact in his first year. It’s a system that we have applied to the previous three drafts and with great success.
So after plugging everything into their computers, Prediction Machine’s NFL Draft expert Matt Richner and general manager Paul Bessire released all seven rounds of their “objective” mock draft.
Here is the first round of the NFL draft, per the computations of PredictionMachine.com:
|PICK #||NFL TEAM||PLAYER||POSITION||SCHOOL|
|1||Kansas City||Luke Joeckel||OT||Texas A&M|
|2||Jacksonville||Damontre Moore||DE||Texas A&M|
|5||Detroit||Eric Fisher||OT||Central Michigan|
|6||Cleveland||Xavier Rhodes||CB||Florida State|
|9||New York Jets||Jarvis Jones||RUSH||Georgia|
|10||Tennessee||Bjoern Werner||DE||Florida State|
|11||San Diego||DJ Fluker||OT||Alabama|
|13||New York Jets||Johnthan Banks||CB||Mississippi State|
|14||Carolina||Tavon Austin||WR||West Virginia|
|15||New Orleans||Johnathan Hankins||DT||Ohio State|
|16||St. Louis||Phillip Thomas||S||Fresno State|
|19||New York Giants||Alec Ogletree||ILB||Georgia|
|22||St. Louis||Terrance Williams||WR||Baylor|
|23||Minnesota||Manti Te’o||ILB||Notre Dame|
|26||Green Bay||Barrett Jones||C||Alabama|
|28||Denver||Cornelius Carradine||DE||Florida State|
|29||New England||Terry Hawthorne||CB||Illinois|
|31||San Francisco||DJ Hayden||CB||Houston|