The high pressure that brought the picture perfect weather yesterday is now centered halfway between the Carolinas and Bermuda. We have a general area of low pressure north of the western Great Lakes and a surface front/trough trailing southwestward from this low. We have some moisture coming in from the west ahead of this system today, more or less a combination of warm advection, a mid/level short wave and also some of the convection that fired yesterday afternoon out ahead of this storm system coming eastward in the flow.
All of that spells a cloudier day today day. We worded the forecast clouds and \sunshine. There are some sprinkles coming across the northern part of the viewing area near the PA border this morning and northern half of the viewing area will have sprinkle/brief shower this morning. However, there will also be breaks of sunshine in this more or less muddled system. With the heating expected to take place today thanks to a little southwest breeze picking up, some sun, and also dew points on the rise to the more noticeable range from yesterday, the weak short wave trough coming toward us will be enough to kick up a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon into this evening. Doesn’t look like a widespread or heavy event, but probably a little better chance of seeing an hour or so of rain and thunder than not and think pops probably around 60%. Behind the first short wave and weak surface trough, we should have no trigger for any shower or thunderstorm overnight and most of tomorrow, but will have to watch for a potential strung out corridor of moisture from west to east that still brings parts of the area a shower or thunderstorm overnight tonight and tomorrow morning. The higher chance tomorrow will be in the afternoon during the building warmth and most of the day at anyone spot should be dry with intervals of sunshine.