The heat and and humidity are going to be something to contend with again today (please note the advisories/warnings in the area). Though we do get some trimming of the intense heat as we head into tomorrow, It is probably going to be just run of mill more typical warmth and for this time of year and no big push of “cool, dry” air. Dew points may not even fall below 70 tomorrow. Although temperatures remain in the near-average range for Monday and Tuesday, our dew points are apt to still be up around 70 and perhaps even back up into the low 70s. Guess we just have to be thankful that the stretch of really dangerous heat will be coming to end with the front that drops southward today and moves into our area tonight.
There can be a stray shower or thunderstorm this morning, but for the most active period we will have to wait for the heating of the days. The slightly lower heights will result in the develop of a couple of thunderstorms this afternoon and until the front comes through late tonight, that threat for a thunderstorm will continue. The thing that appears to be missing for us with this situation for severe weather is the lack of dynamics. Those dynamics are higher off to the north and west of our area where the SPC currently has a slight risk area highlighted for today into early tonight. A detailed inspection of the 500 mb guidance doesn’t reveal any good vorticity maxes or height falls coming across the area.
However, with a quicker than normal westerly flow up through the atmosphere, along with the moisture and the build up of heat ahead of a prefrontal trough this afternoon into this evening and front later tonight, we do need to cover the fact that any thunderstorm this afternoon through this evening can have gusty winds and downpours. We think that flow will be fast enough to preclude any major flash flooding threat, but any of the storms that develop can bring visibility lowering downpours and ponding of water on roadways. Also, looks like the storms could be pretty potent lightning producers. So, viewers should keep an eye and ear to the sky and any isolated warnings.