The weather map is slowly becoming less active. The last advisory was issued for Karen and overall, the moisture is not expected to be a major factor for our neighborhood as previously thought. Our main concern weather-wise is now the timing of an approaching cold front. Latest model trends still have the remnants of Karen combining with the dynamics of the front, but Karen’s moisture is not expected to make progress nearly as far north. There could still be some influence from Karen that makes it into the mid-Atlantic, but overall it will be a small portion of the total moisture that we see on Monday.
The timing of our next storm system looks like this: we think that there will be scattered showers in the morning moving in from west to east. Then the steadier and more uniform rain is expected to make a push into the metro area during the first part of the afternoon. The rain, heavy at times, should then last through the rest of the afternoon and evening commute. The thinking now is that the rain will move out of the area as soon as Monday night, but it would not surprise me if pushes out sooner based on the current trends of the models.
After the front moves out, high pressure will build into the mid-Atlantic and northeast. Temps should also drop back to near normal by the middle of the week with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s.