Latest models show a cold front is stretched from eastern New York State to central Pennsylvania and into the Ohio Valley. This front will continue to move east and reach the I-95 corridor around sunrise.
Models continue to indicate a wave will develop along the front just west or southwest of the Shenandoah Valley around midday. This will help slow the progress of the front south of the Mason-Dixon Line.
There will be a stark temperature contrast across the front with 60s south of the front and 30s and 40s to the north. Snow is moving across the southern Great Lakes and into northwest Pennsylvania and western New York. Rain will move into the viewing area mid to late afternoon Sunday and will be on and off into the evening.
Temperatures will be falling during the evening and will get to freezing between 10 p.m. and midnight. Sleet will start to mix with the rain by midnight and will be followed by a transition to all snow overnight.
Paved surfaces will go from wet to icy overnight as temperatures continue to fall. Snow will be moderate to heavy during the morning commute and driving conditions will be very hazardous. Snow will continue to fall moderate to heavy at times through early afternoon Monday then begin to decrease in intensity.
When snow is falling at its heaviest, snowfall rates can be 1 inch per hour or more. Snow will move out of the area by early Monday evening. Snowfall amounts across the viewing area will range from 6 to 12 inches. Amounts along the Mason-Dixon Line will be closer to 6 inches.