WEATHER BLOG: Cooler Air Pushes Through
West northwest flow will result in a dry and cooler afternoon with sun and some clouds. The average high for Thursday is 63, so even though it is a lot cooler than it was earlier in the week it is really not too far from where it "should" be at this time of year. It'll be a tranquil day Friday, and then the main story for the weekend is the increasing wind and cold, especially for the second half.
Things are much cooler than they were over the last few days. A cold front pushed through the region during the day Wednesday, ushering in much cooler air behind it during the afternoon. In fact, temperatures fell during the day after hitting a high of 69 at midnight at BWI.
This afternoon into the night will be a brief period of calm conditions as weak area of high pressure controls our weather. It will still be seasonable with a high near 60 with a mix of sun and clouds, but it will surely be cooler than the last few days! These calm conditions will continue into the night with mainly clear conditions and cool temperatures. By Friday, a potent upper level disturbance will plow into the Great Lakes, and dig a deep trough over the eastern part of the country. This feature will spark showers and even some snow over part of the Great Lakes, but activity should remain west of the region this day. With this, clouds will be on the increase throughout the day as the system draws nearer.
By Friday night into Saturday, another piece of energy will phase will the in the Great Lakes and a potent upper low will track over the Carolinas. With this set up, the atmosphere is favorable for a coastal storm to develop off of the North Carolina or Virginia coast. As this occurs, there could be some showers that work into the region late at night as the system gathers off the coast. The biggest question right now is where the storm goes as it forms. Right now modeling is actually in decent agreement with the storm passing well south and east of the region. This would spare the region of major precipitation. There is still uncertainty with the exact track of the system, so right now we are playing as some showers on Saturday with temperatures in the low to mid 50s-roughly 5-10 degrees below normal. No matter the track, the pressure gradient produced by this strengthening coastal storm will allow for windy conditions over the weekend with gusts potentially over 30 mph, especially near the coast.
