WEATHER BLOG: Saturday

Yesterday was a chilly but dry day with the high getting up to 42 at BWI in the afternoon. High pressure will control our weather today and temperatures will be similar to today under partly cloudy skies. This will continue into Sunday as well as high pressure moves off the east coast, though a southwesterly flow will allow for temperatures to rise near 50 as clouds continue to increase in the afternoon.

By Sunday night, upper level energy originating in the Pacific Northwest will move into the Ohio Valley, and attempt to phase with some energy diving out of Canada. Low pressure will develop in the southeastern US and move northward over the DelMarVa Monday morning. Ahead of this system, warm advection will lead to rain breaking out across the region late Sunday night. As the low pressure system moves northward over eastern southern New England Monday, rain will continue and be moderate to heavy at times. Rain will taper off Monday evening as the low moves into the Canadian Maritimes. As of now, model consensus is around 0.75-1.00" rain Sunday night into Monday. I think this is a good start for precipitation amounts, but there remains some uncertainty to exact amounts.

Behind this storm, unseasonably cold air will follow for the middle of the week. 850mb temperatures are forecast to be -10C to -15C Tuesday into Wednesday. This will translate to highs in the 30s both days. Despite the cold temperatures, precipitation chances will be low through the end of the week as high pressure remains nearby.

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