WEATHER BLOG: Sunday

The calm before the storm today as high pressure continues to slide off the east coast. Temperatures today will climb above normal for the first time since Nov 12 but only be a degree or two. We will see a fair amount of clouds today as a low pressure system moves into Missouri. This is going to spread an area of rain northward through the southeast today. This area of rain will move into our region by tonight. Rain will move into Philadelphia around 10pm and then New York City around 2am. We will see about a 4-6 hour window of steady rain which will drop between 0.25-0.50 inches of rain. Monday the warm front will be well north of the area as the low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. The area of rain will shift into New England and we will be deep in the southerly flow. This is going to allow for temperatures to soar towards record levels in the lower 70s. With the low pressure deepening to 984mb creating strong winds across the entire region. Monday night the cold front will push off the Atlantic Ocean with little moisture. Tuesday will still be a fairly warm day with westerly wind and good mixing. Wednesday a storm system will ride along the frontal boundary that it off the coastline. There is a lot of uncertainty with the track of this storm system. But what is certain is that a storm will track up the east coast with a lot of precipitation. Climotology speaking a snowstorm in the I-95 corridor is not out of the question but does not occur very often with the best chance of snow west of I-95. The EURO and Euro ensembles continue to show a swath of 3-6 inches of snow and even 6-12 inches west of I-95. Given the time of year the boundary layer could still be slightly warm enough where rain could be the p-type in DELMARVA and mixing closer to
Baltimore and then mostly all snow west of I-95. We will leave it as a rain and snow with the greatest chance of seeing accumulating snow is west of I-95. The GFS and Canadian are further off shore which is a possibility but given that it is one of the busiest times of the year for travel and ensemble agreement with the EURO we will continue to expect a storm system. Thanksgiving will be dry with perhaps a flurry and breezy conditions for the parade. It will remain cold with upper 30s and lower 40s for high temperatures. Friday and Saturday will be dry but remain cold.

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