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WEATHER BLOG: First Forecast

The New Year is getting off to a very chilly start, and even though we're expecting a good deal of sunshine today --most temperatures will be no higher than mid 30s again this afternoon.

The axis of a large trough of low pressure, or a dip in the jet stream winds' positioned over the Northeast will continue to supply the Eastern Region with a relatively fresh source of cold air.

No precipitation is expected over the next couple of days, and the radar mosaic around the entire nation is rather quiet this morning.

But, there are two exceptions: 1.) The cold flow continues to support bands of heavy, lake-effect snow in upstate New York, and 2.) There's some snow, sleet and rain occurring in the southern Tier of states.

Heavy snow has been occurring since late yesterday in the mountains of Arizona and southern Nevada, and a strong upper-level low pressure system is now beginning to enhance precipitation across Texas.

And, as we've been stressing all week long, this feature in the southern branch of the jet stream is going to lead to our next round of precipitation this coming weekend.

A high pressure system located on tomorrow's weather map in the Great Lakes region will tend to slide into a position in southeastern Canada by early Saturday.

Therefore, it is going to take quite a while for the overrunning moisture to be able to generate precipitation, most of which will occur south of the Mason- Dixon Line Saturday afternoon and evening, and then in the Northeast from very late on Saturday / Saturday night into Sunday.

Temperatures that will be in the 30s in most places late Saturday afternoon should begin to rise during the night, with many winding up in either the 40s or even the lower 50s by early on Sunday morning.

Therefore, even in the higher elevations located north and west of the big cities (and the valleys which provide "cold crevices" between them), the air temperature will be high enough to support plain rain after 2 or 3 a.m. at the latest.

So, there'll be a few slick spots on a few interstates late on Saturday and early Saturday night, but most road surfaces will just be wet (not snow or ice covered) by daybreak on Sunday.

One of the things that we're noticing early this morning is that the global models are showing an even bigger 'spike' in temperatures occurring around here on Sunday than previously thought.

As the plume of rich moisture moves out of the area Sunday afternoon, the so-called 'dry slot' will have some unseasonably mild air associated with it.

It now looks as if temperatures along the I-95 corridor will soar into the mid-50s across southern New England and the lower 60s in the mid-Atlantic states.

However, we're still expecting a colder surge to follow on the heels of the warm-up, which will result in temperatures no higher than the 30s on Monday and Tuesday.

Have a good New Year!!

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