WEATHER BLOG: Thursday
Temperatures very close to the surface are taking a little while to drop, so a steady (and locally
heavy) snowfall should continue to spread from southwest to northeast . Anticipate slick spots as the temperature plummets into the 20s before
early this afternoon.
Because the air temperatures along the mid-Atlantic coast have been in the lower or middle 40s
most of the night, there is probably going to be a tight gradient, or 'sharp cut-off' between those places which get
fewer than 3 inches of new snow and those who gain more than 6 inches… This zone appears as if will be located
over extreme South Jersey and in the Delmarva Peninsula… For example, what could be a six-inch or eight-inch
snow for Baltimore may only wind up being 2 inches in Ocean City, etc.
But, while precipitation rates and the rate at which the atmosphere will be turning colder will be the 'driving forces'
behind snow amounts near the coast, the story will be a little different for most places located well inland… For
example, in the Poconos and Catskills, places which typically do very well in a winter storm when it comes to snowfall
amounts, there may not be too much seen today… This is because the moisture available will be lacking — just to
cite one example: the European global model is showing quantitative precipitation totals of 0.72" in Allentown, PA
today… But, at BWI (120 miles to the south-southwest 'as the crow flies'), this amount of liquid is 1.08", MUCH
MORE than what is expected in east-central PA… So, this is a big reason why we feel the 'sweet spot' which gains
more than 5 or 6 inches will be running from the mountains of West Virginia all the way to the Jersey Shore…
As you can imagine, in this kind of set-up, most of the snow will end by early this afternoon in upstate New York,
southern New England and in northeastern Pennsylvania… But it will take several hours longer (possibly until as late
as 6 p.m.) in areas much farther to the south, including the mid-Atlantic coast… As clearing takes place tonight, it will
still be quite cold — lows will be in the single digits or below zero in many rural areas, but the teens in the big cities…
We anticipate there will be lots of sunshine tomorrow, but most temperatures will be no higher than 30 or so… Still
looking better this weekend.
