WEATHER BLOG: Sunny, Warm For Sunday

BALTIMORE (WJZ)--A beautiful end to the weekend is setting itself up for us today, with sunny and warm conditions on Sunday. Dew point temperatures should stay in the 50s most if not all day, and so the warmth won't be intolerable, and once there is some afternoon mixing taking place a light breeze should try to pick up, calm until then though.

Monday will see a noticeable change as winds aloft make a prefrontal wind shift to out of the south, pulling in some significant moisture that should mix down to the surface. Dew point temps will rather quickly lift into the mid to upper 60s. Warmer air will also get adverted in aloft, and much of the I-95 is looking at a day in the 90s. Despite all this the front will hang back far enough to the west that our pops will remain low for the day, although with the amount of instability being generated I'm surprised the models aren't showing some pre-frontal convection, I'd be on the look out for something but not have anything in the forecast yet.

Timing wise with the frontal passage, precipitation should move through with the front either late Monday night or at the latest Tuesday morning. The modeling is showing the line of convection with the front weakening sharply before reaching the area, and this makes sense based on the arrival timing and typical eastward advancing fronts and the associated down-sloping. I would expect a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm, but nothing severe for now. While the frontal precipitation will be through the temperature drop will lag will behind. Dew point temperatures will at least be falling.

On Wednesday a disturbance passing south of the Great Lakes will head into the mid-Atlantic region (although the timing of the feature is still disputed). Showers and thunderstorms could be making it to the MD/DE coast by days end.

It looks as though activity should stay largely south of the Mason Dixon Line.