And the answer to the question is, ” who knows.” And the question is, “What is the likelihood of rain on Saturday?” Let’s begin a discussion that will eventually have no conclusion.
Right now the barometer is at 30.22, really high. A big dome of high pressure is sitting on top of the Mid-Atlantic. It is giving us a nice start to the day. But this high is moving East at a pretty good clip. As it does the high will swing our winds around out of the South East. That means humidity will rise and the atmosphere will get unstable. (For instance the Dew Point right now is 60°. By Saturday the Dew Point will be in the low 70’s. Sticky, uncomfortable if you will.)
Quoting my briefing from Accu-Weather this A.M., “On Saturday as an impulse of energy which will rotate around an upper level trough which will swing through the region is expected to promote showers and thunderstorms.” Then this quote after looking at various computer models, specifically the Global Model, and the North American Model, “The differences between the G.F.S., and the N.A.M. are rather astounding.” Now here comes some straight talk. The G.F.S. is saying 1/10 of an inch of rain Sat afternoon. The N.A.M. is calling for 1..5 to 2.5 inches of rain between 8 A.M. and 8 P.M. Saturday. That is quite “astounding.”
By tomorrow we will have a solution. The models will start to, with addition information, agree one way or another. But it might just take until tomorrow afternoon to find that common ground.
Sunday looks to be the dry day, and maybe the sunnier one too. So if you need to pick a day to make plans just go to Sunday. If you have plans in place for Saturday, time to hang on for the forecast ride.
As I mentioned today there is no good conclusion. That’s Nature. And that IS the news.