Scott Garceau: 2015 MLB Predictions (No Refunds)
The problem with this crystal ball stuff in the written form is people can actually go back and check your work. Those stupid times I have on TV and radio are tougher to fact check. So before you bet the ranch on these picks I'll remind you that I picked the defending AL East champion Orioles to finish third last year behind Tampa Bay and Boston. Whoops!
Wasn't that Boston in the cellar 25 games behind Buck's Orioles? Hey in 2013 I boldly predicted the Boys of Beantown would finish dead last in the AL East and I'm pretty sure they had a parade in Boston that October. So what I'm saying is this isn't an exact science but the boss demands a blog a week so here we go.
AL EAST
Baltimore — Much talk 'bout what the O's don't have (Cruz, Markakis, Miller), what they do have is pitching, defense, HR power and Buck. "I like our guys."
Boston — The popular national pick after a 71-91 crash last year. No Lester, Koji showing wear and suspect starting pitching. They'll score runs and give up a bunch. Can they add a top notch pitcher?
Toronto — Nice adds Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin join Joey Bats, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Reyes. With the loss of pitcher Marcus Stroman they look short on the mound.
Tampa Bay — They lost more than Joe Maddon. Will Meyers and Ben Zobrist exits leave the Rays short on bats. They'll try to survive with pitching but Cobb, Smyly and McGee all injured.
New York — They could be good if Tanaka, Sabathia and Pineda hold up, same for Teixeira, Ellsbury and Beltran. If A-Rod can hit 25? You get it, a ton of old guy question marks equals last place.
Summary — Baltimore, Boston and Toronto all capable of taking the division, I like the O's pitching edge. The Rays and Yankees would surprise if they made the playoffs.
AL Central
Detroit — After dominating the division no longer the sexy pick. They'll need Price to be an ace something from Verlander and good health for Miguel Cabrera. Not easy, but they make it 5 straight division titles.
Kansas City — The AL champs lost James Shields but not much else. They'll run, play defense and shorten games with their flame throwing bullpen.
Chicago — Might have the league's best hitter in Jose Abreau and best pitcher in Chris Sale. Added Samardzija, bats Larouche, Melky Cabrera and Yankee closer David Robertson. They're legit.
Cleveland — Some think they can win the division. Cy Kluber and Carlos Carrasco a nasty 1-2 mound punch. I see something like last year when they went 85-77.
Minnesota — Can make a case for the other four teams but not the Twins. I suspect 90 some losses; just not enough talent and minor league help a year or two away.
Summary — Might be the most competitive division in MLB. No great team but four of the five teams postseason contenders.
AL West
LA Angels — There I did it, avoided the head-long dive onto the Mariners bandwagon. The Angels lead MLB with 98 wins in '14 and all they lost was Howie Kendrick. If Weaver and Wilson can be productive and Garrett Richards and Matt Shoemaker come to close to '14 form they win.
Seattle — I get it, King Felix, Iwakuma, phenom pitcher Taijuan Walker, Robinson Cano and you add Nellie Cruz's HR bat, nice! Many "experts" are picking the Mariners to win the whole ball of wax. They're damn good but might be a glove and a couple of bats short.
Oakland — The winningest team in the league over the last 3 years under the radar again. Big changes on Bob Melvin's roster but they seem to find a way to pitch and contend.
Texas--- Cursed? An early gut punch with the loss of ace Yu Darvish. Prince Fielder is back but that won't save the starting pitching.
Houston — A good battle with the Rangers to stay out of the cellar. Exciting position players in Altuve and Springer but where's the starting pitching?
Summary — Angels, Mariners and A's could be post-season players. Three team division that should be decided in the season's final days.
NL East
Washington — Here's the Nats rotation….Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister. Good night everybody! Pitching wins.
Miami — Dee Gordon brings his spikes to South Beach. Jose Fernandez should be back in June and Giancarlo Stanton waves his magic wand.
NY Mets — Bartolo Colon at 41 doesn't qualify but Terry Collins has a bunch of talented young arms. Jacob deGrom was the NL Rookie of the Year, and Matt Harvey looks good after TJ surgery.
Atlanta — Some nice young arms but don't expect much, Braves targeting 2017 when they move into their new stadium.
Philadelphia — Becoming the Oakland Raiders of baseball, hot mess! Wake us up when you trade Cole Hamels.
Summary — Looks like the Nats and four teams. On paper it's no match, the race is for second place.
NL Central
St. Louis — Probably not a great team but the Redbirds are one MLB's most consistent. A winning organization wins another division title.
Pittsburgh — The team that gets to 85-86 wins finishes second in the division. Andrew McCutchen is a special player; Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco keep the Pirates in playoff contention.
Milwaukee — Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez help off-set an ordinary pitching staff, a middle of the pack team in the middle of the Central pack.
Chi. Cubs — Not so fast my North Side friends! The Cubs are coming but maybe not this year. Jon Lester, Kris Bryant (in a few weeks), Jorge Solar are great pieces but maybe just a .500 team.
Cincinnati — Joey Votto and then what? The Little Red Machine ranked 28th in runs scored last season. No runs, no fun.
Summary — Can't see the bottom three in the playoff picture and the Cardinals win the arms race with the Pirates.
NL West
LA Dodgers — They spend like the old Yankees. Plenty of changes, gone are Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez, Dee Gordon and pitcher Dan Haren. Say hello to Jimmy Rollins, Howie Kendrick, Yasmani Grandal, and Brandon McCarthy. Still present Clayton Kershaw.
San Francisco — Postseason star Pablo Sandoval's home field is now Fenway Park. The Giants aren't scary on paper but they have a knack for being better than the sum of their parts.
San Diego — They scored in the off-season; can The Padres carry that momentum through the regular season? Matt Kemp, Justin Upton Wil Myers and James Shields give SD a chance.
Colorado — A couple of special players in Carlos Gonzales and Troy Tulowitzki but only when they play. In the past three seasons they've combined to miss 284 games. Ouch!
Arizona — I really don't know much about the D-Backs and really don't have to. They won't be a factor.
Summary — There's some drama in the West, with the defending champion Giants, the talented and deep pocket Dodgers and the new and improved Padres. Likely two of those three make the playoffs.
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