The area of high pressure that has controlled our weather recently has moved offshore, leading to southwesterly winds and an increase in heat and humidity. Temperatures today will be similar to Saturday, but dew points will rise into the middle to upper 60s. A weak cold front will approach the region with spotty showers and thunderstorms during the evening (potentially mid to late afternoon across western MD). The best upper level dynamics will remain north of the region, so coverage and intensity will be limited. However, thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rain. The weak boundary then will linger over the area Monday with additional chances for a shower or thunderstorm.

By Tuesday, a ridge will begin to pump into the region, leading to warm conditions. With the warmth building in aloft, a CAP could prevent any convection from firing, but there may be a storm in a few spots. The surface boundary should wash out this day as well.

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This ridge will continue to build through the middle of next week, promoting hot and humid conditions with many locations climbing into the 90s Wednesday and Thursday with dew points in the upper 60s.

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Timing of the next trough and cold front is tough given the potential tropical development off the southeast coast. The front looks to get into the Appalachians by early Thursday and slow by late Thursday into Friday. This could spark showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. We allowed for something on Friday as well as the front may get hung up along the coastal plain.

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Humidity should drop behind the front for the weekend, with temperatures remaining in the 80s.