The wonderful weather we experienced behind the front yesterday will continue into this weekend with warm temperatures near 90. An upper trough will remain over NY state through today, passing to our north tonight. There will be plenty of sunshine today mixing with clouds this afternoon. As a surface trough passes through this afternoon, there may be a spotty shower, but it will not be widespread whatsoever.

High pressure over the Tennessee Valley will nose to the northeast into the area on Sunday and the very warm but more comfortable pattern continues with sunshine. As the trough passes to our north, we will once again see some afternoon clouds, but likely no precipitation.

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A cool front with decent upper level support will approach from the west on Monday so it will be hot with sun and building afternoon clouds. Best chance of a shower or t-storm should hold off until evening or at night. Some of those storms can be strong, and currently the main threat looks to be strong winds. Dew points surge into the upper 60s to near 70 Monday afternoon, so strong storms are certainly possible.

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Tuesday looks dry as the front moves east very early in the morning. With a westerly downsloping flow, temperatures should still get into the upper 80s.

The front will stall south of the Mason Dixon line mid to late week as a couple of waves of low pressure track along the front. We added an afternoon thunderstorm on Wednesday due to the first wave being very close, and it could very well be wetter than current thinking. We will monitor this closely.

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Timing of the second wave is uncertain with global modeling differing significantly. The GFS has a more zonal pattern versus the ECMWF which has a rather amplified flow. Given current PNA teleconnection projections, a more amplified flow is certainly possible. This could lead to the trough lingering into the weekend across the east. This would keep temperatures in the lower 80s, slightly below average.