I’m picking Denver to win this game and I already know I’m gonna here a lot of people saying I’m only doing that because of Peyton Manning.

I heard that last week when I picked them to beat New England.  My favorite color is green. When I pick a game winner, that’s what I actually believe will happen. I always pick with my head and not my heart.

In this game, I believe Peyton will make a couple of plays offensively to keep the Panthers on their heels.  Denver has the number one defense in football and Cam will find out why this weekend.  I don’t believe Denver will dominate the game but I do believe that they will do enough to come out on top. Denver is a tough team to run against and we all know about their pass defense. Wade Phillips devised a scheme last week that confused Tom Brady.  If he can do that against Brady, then he can definitely do that against Cam with 2 weeks to get ready.

This will be a low scoring game in my opinion. For the Panthers to be successful on offense, Cam will have to make some plays with his feet.

Not just running for first downs, but extended the play to make some big passes down the field.  Greg Olsen will have to come up huge in this game, because i don’t believe those receivers can get open consistently against Denver’s secondary.  If the Broncos can get ahead early then i think they will unleash Miller and Ware.

I do believe that Denver gets an early lead and holds on to win 20-17. Peyton Manning will be the MVP and ride off into the sunset, just like Elway did.

Here is some food for thought when it comes to trends regarding the big game:

Since 2001, teams with better regular season records are 1-11 against the spread (ats). Since 1995, playoff teams who scored 40+ pts are 4-24 ats the following game.

The Super Bowl team with smaller margin of victory in their conference Championship have won 9 of last 14 SB’s straight up.

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