Sunny but chilly today. No surprise. Warmer, much warmer, tomorrow and Saturday. No surprise. A chance of showers Saturday. No surprise. Cooler and cloudy on Sunday, the day of Christmas Eve. No surprise.
Time for a surprise though, and another reminder that it is called a “forecast’ not a “guarantee.”
There has been a big change on Christmas eve, and Christmas day. The past couple of days we have been discussing a Low moving our way. We have discussed the discrepancies between the European model calling for it to stay West. And the American model calling for that Low to come over us. The West solution was for a kind of mild gray day. The G.F.S. solution was for, maybe, some light snow. GUESS WHAT…both turned out wrong.
The only promise is in a marriage vow, not a weather broadcast. Both models have now agreed the Low will go well offshore, and mostly tracking to our South. That means maybe a light shower or quick snow flurry on Christmas day. And that is about it. Otherwise clearing skies and cool.
Many times over the past year I have pointed out how the best models put together by the best minds in the world can be wrong. The one thing in control is the Earth itself. And the planet will ALWAYS be the final judge.
So how accurate is this current “forecast?” As we get closer to the event the confidence factor goes up. If this day’s afternoon modeling does not change I think we finally have a good solution.
But not a guarantee.