BLOG: Perfect Sunday

The weekend will end on a pleasant note across the Mid-Atlantic as high pressure moves in and morning clouds gradually erode away. With afternoon sunshine, temperatures should push into the low/mid 60s for most locations, and with little in the way of wind it will be quite nice for late October. Unfortunately the beginning of the work week will not be as nice with a low pressure system moving across Ontario and Quebec tomorrow dragging a cold front into the area late in the day. Clouds will increase ahead of this feature with a shower or two around late in the afternoon to the northwest, but any rainfall in the Greater Baltimore area should hold off until the evening. Highs will actually be a few degrees warmer despite the cloud cover in most places as a strong southwesterly flow will bring in milder air. Clearing commences overnight and then more in the way of uncertainty begins to creep into the forecast.

Model guidance isn't very helpful at this juncture with regard to the midweek evolution of a strong frontal boundary and several impulses expected to ride along said front. So after a nice day on Tuesday (sunshine and upper 60s), Wednesday will feature a mix of sun and clouds as a low pressure system moves by to the north. Some modeling indicates more in the way of clouds and even a stray shower or two, and we'll keep that in the forecast for now as we carried it yesterday -- but confidence is low with regard to the showers at this point. Clouds are a better bet, so perhaps it's best to emphasize that aspect of the forecast. Thursday is even more uncertain as models differ with regard to the placement of the front that will separate milder air from a much cooler airmass. Model guidance with regard to high temperatures range anywhere from around 50 to near 70... so it's probably best to not make too many changes -- and we've only allowed for a token increase in temperatures to fall within the middle of the range and closer to the model consensus. The modeling does agree that Friday will be much cooler so unless this system slows down altogether (entirely possible, we've certainly seen that before) the week should end on a chilly note with breezy conditions to boot.