By Tim Williams

The weekend will start off on a pretty good note with a mix of sun and clouds with most shower activity staying to the south. A down sloping northwesterly flow should allow clouds to break with temperatures rising into the 50s today, though a few stray showers will develop in the afternoon across portions of the viewing area (best chances for rain to the west, likely dry to the northeast). Heights will rise overnight as a ridge pushes eastward across the Ohio Valley, and for Sunday sunshine will be fairly abundant early on, though a few (high) clouds will begin to move into the region as a stream of vorticity slides through the area and warm advection takes place in the mid-levels. In fact, skies may become overcast before sunset in western and southern areas where the depth of the warm advection will be greater. Rain will develop Sunday night as a warm front moves through with clearing and warm temperatures Monday.

 Then comes the cold front Monday night into Tuesday, and with this we can expect a band of decent rainfall and perhaps a few thunderstorms given the strong mid-level flow (850 mb winds near 50 kts overnight). Some of these storms could produce damaging wind gusts if everything aligns properly, but that is somewhat unclear at this time. Temperatures and timing of the precipitation are extremely problematic right now with 50 and 75 equally as likely right now…since we had gone with 71 in the previous forecast package we’ll bump this down to 64 for now with the front expected to clear early in the morning. In any case, Wednesday should feature more normal temperatures with at least some sunshine… warm advection clouds could stream in by the afternoon, however. Milder for Thursday with a deep-layered southwesterly flow, though an increase in clouds is possible once again in the afternoon as a cold front sags southward.

Have a great day!


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