After any shower or thunderstorm dies off early tonight, we are left in a warm humid air mass for the rest of tonight and tomorrow with south to southwest flow.
A cold front will be slowly moving eastward tomorrow through Monday night stretching from a low pressure area that will be moving into southern Quebec tomorrow afternoon. This front should basically stay too far to our north and west keeping us dry, warm and humid tomorrow with clouds and sunshine. Since this front is so slow-moving, we should stay rain-free again tomorrow night and probably Monday morning. However, as this front moves into the warm, moist air we will have in place late Monday and Monday night, there will be the threat for some heavy rainfall from the showers and stronger thunderstorms. It’s something we will have to keep an eye on. All models are not in agreement on the timing of this front, but for now at least, we play the front as lingering in or just south of our area Tuesday with some additional rain likely. I think a given is the temperature change or cooler coming for Tuesday and the rest of the week again.
Meanwhile, we have Lee that will be slowly tracking northward early next week (as a low pressure area and not a Tropical Storm). The current thinking is that our front from Monday night and Tuesday morning stalls out to our south and some of the moisture feeds in from what will be now a low pressure area and runs up and over this front and brings us the chance of more rain Wednesday and perhaps into Thursday.
We will have to keep an eye on the flood threat as there could be a couple of inches of rain from later Monday into Thursday.