BLOG: Winter Is Still Here

After the basically no-show of Saturday's "winter" storm, we will have a chilly day Sunday. With this winter's wimpy showing, Sunday may go down as one of the chilliest days of the winter of 2011-2012. A gusty west-northwest due to the deepening storm affecting the Canadian maritimes and a large area of high pressure over the Mississippi Valley will be the cause of all this wind. There should a good deal of both clouds and sun as the cold air goes over the "balmy" Great Lakes, picks up moisture and cause lake-effect snow showers near the Lakes. There may be some flurries in the Catskills of New York and the Poconos of Pennsylvania, but we should see enough down-sloping and we are far enough removed from this moisture source that we are dry. Continued breezy and chilly Sunday night. Wind chills will be in the single digits. The winds will be busiest in the evening as the pressure gradient lightens up some as the night goes on.

Monday we will see a good deal of sunshine as the high pressure system is centered over the Southeast. Winds should be lighter and temperatures should be at least 5-10 degrees warmer than Sunday, if not a little more than that. With the decrease in winds, it will feel even warmer than that though as temperatures get to get to seasonable levels. Clouds will overspread the region late Monday night limiting any radiational cooling. These clouds are due to overrunning.

Plenty of clouds on Tuesday as weak overrunning continues. A rain or snow shower could result. I think the more likely precip type is rain, but some snowflakes can not be ruled out because a)this airmass is rather dry and there could be some evaporational cooling and b) the warm air advection is weak. There will be plenty of clouds as a dirty ridge of high pressure, very weak, moves into the region Wednesday. We should be dry and temperatures should rise up a few more degrees and surpass 50.