After scattered strong thunderstorms yesterday that moved through the I-95 corridor, today will bring a smaller chance of severe weather. However, there is still a chance for thunderstorms today. The best chance for the thunderstorms will be this afternoon. The cold front that is responsible for the strong thunderstorms is draped across the eastern Ohio Valley. This is not really a big surprise given that is the middle of Summer and that typically it is difficult at this time of year to get a cold front to go blasting well to the south and east like that. So while there is going to be some relief from the extreme heat and humidity, it will not quite as cool and refreshing as we would perhaps have liked. Dew Points behind the cold front in Ontario, Canada are in the 40s! We will not see that type of dry air early next week but eventually the humid will begin to lessen. And, with the humid air still in place, we cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm in a few spots today.
During the first half of next week, the front will be briefly stalled to our south, then will start to drift back to the north again. This means that the humidity will again be on the rise BUT it does not look like the extreme heat will return as heights are not shown to get all that high. Of course with a lot of moisture and not real high heights there can be some showers and thunderstorms around. Any short wave that comes along in the flow can enhance these. One such short wave is shown by the models to come along later tomorrow and tomorrow night into Tuesday. So that period might get rather active. Beyond that, timing individual features will be pretty tough. The models are hinting at some drying later
next week, with the GFS being a little more bullish on it than the European. But after what has happened this week, I don’t know how much trust we can put into that.