Well, I have officially thrown in the towel on the big storm idea for the middle of next week. The European model has trended over the past few runs to push any low that forms out to sea before it has a chance to make it far enough north to have any impact on our weather. This makes more sense than previous runs because we have been in a progressive pattern where storms just zip on through and don’t hang around. Looking more at the short term, there is an area of low pressure sitting over the Great Lakes that will slide eastward across southern Ontario and Quebec Saturday night and through the day Sunday. As this slides to the north and east, there will be a few showers that make it far enough south to affect northern Pa., but the associated front is moisture starved so any widespread precipitation is not expected. Winds Sunday will be on the windy side around 12-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph possible.
Weak high pressure will bring a nice day to the area for the start of the work week ahead of a strong cold front. The aforementioned cold front is associated with an area of low pressure that will be sliding across northern Ontario Monday and into Quebec by Tuesday. Ahead of this front, clouds will increase Monday. Model soundings show a very saturated air mass overhead. The cold front is expected to move through Monday night and bring with it the chance for rain and snow showers. These should last into the morning hours Tuesday before the front departs. Temps will drop significantly into the low/mid 40s Tuesday and Wednesday with lows in the 20s.
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