BALTIMORE (WJZ)– Incumbent Larry Hogan wants to be only the second two-term Republican governor in Maryland history, but a new poll shows he may have a fight on his hands.
According to the Mason-Dixon Poll, Hogan gets a more than a 60 percent approval rating, much like the Goucher poll last week, but the poll also shows that he may have stiff competition.
“It shows him that although he’s very popular he can’t rest on that popularity,” said political scientist Matthew Crenson.
Hogan leads all his democrat rivals, but still polls with less than 50 percent of the vote.
A match against Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker gives Hogan 46 percent, Baker 39 percent of the vote, with 15 percent undecided.
Hogan gains ground against Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, 48 percent to 35 percent with 17 percent undecided.
Hogan wins against former NAACP president Ben Jealous 49 percent to 33 percent with 18 percent undecided. Hogan’s number doesn’t change, 49 percent to 30 percent for state senator Richard Madaleno, with the highest number of undecideds at 21 percent.
[Reporter: Larry Hogan is polling in the 60’s in approval rating and just general likability, but he gets less than 50 percent of the vote in the general election. What does that mean?]
“It probably means that people’s party ties are more powerful, more important to them than their evaluation of the governor, and Maryland is a two-to-one to Democratic to Republican state,” Crenson said.
The Hogan campaign released the following statement:
“As this poll clearly shows, half of rank and file democrats approve of Governor Hogan’s performance in office, putting their out of touch leadership in Annapolis in the distinct minority even within their own party.”
Democrats said Hogan’s path to re-election is growing increasingly narrow.
The Mason Dixon Poll also puts Rushern Baker, 17 points ahead of Kevin Kamenetz in the Democratic primary.
The poll was conducted between September 27 and the 30, and has a four point margin of error.